1. Core Philosophy

PAV (Projected Asset Value) is a comprehensive decision currency, not a stat.

It answers one question: "How much future baseball value does this asset deliver, relative to its cost, risk, and timing?"

This engine does NOT collapse uncertainty into a single number like WAR. It models:

• Expected Value
• Distribution of outcomes
• Financial Reality
• Strategic Context

2. The PAV Pipeline

Value is calculated in five rigorous stages:

1. Underlying DNA: We ingest xwOBA, Stuff+, Velocity Trends, and Barrel% to measure skill, not just results.
2. Projections: We integrate Steamer & ZiPS forecasts adjusted for aging.
3. Risk Modeling: We heavily discount for injury history, variance, and prospect volatility.
4. Cost Adj: Performance Value minus Contract Cost (Surplus).
5. Time Discounting: Future value is worth less (8% discount rate).

3. Reference Sheet

Standard valuation benchmarks.